Discover how biased expectations theory impacts interest rates by incorporating investor preferences and risks, beyond just ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

Discover the importance of yield spreads in bond investing, a key tool for assessing risk and comparing debt market returns.

America celebrated Independence Day with a bang in the stock market this week, as we witnessed record numbers yet again. This impressive performance coincided with a rally in the back end of the yield ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

The recent leap in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields has unnerved investors. But it could play into the hands of the country’s lenders. One upshot of this is what’s known as a steeper yield curve. This ...